Much Ado About Nothing

In this article, Jason Shaplen and James Laney summarize the ongoing peace negotiations and the North Korea's disarming of their nuclear weapons and centers. In it, they summarize the progress of the peace negotiations but raise the issue of what will happen to the weapons and the stockpile of the already existing fissile material. Though much progress has been made, to the tune of North Korea's promise of disarming all its nuclear centers, the Beijing talks, and the U.S. aid of $25 million among others things, Shaplen and Laney nevertheless still agree that "Still, the nuclear accord is ambiguous on one issue that threatens to derail it: the question of what will happen to North Korea’s existing stockpile of fissile material".

It is an important question to ask, since more than ever before, Bush has spent resources and efforts to pursuing this end. He has dissolved and stepped over the 6+ years of conflict between hard-line conservatives who want to oust Kim Jong Il's regime and those who favor negotiation, and vested responsibility and power in Christopher Hill, a member of the State Department who is the point man for North Korea. North Korea has thus far mostly, and encouragingly has complied, with much aid from America, of course. But with all this progress with the disarming of nuclear centers and factories, it is just as important to consider the fate of the current stockpile of nuclear items that has been sitting, unused.

This issue is significant. The article cites that North Korea "has reprocessed approximately 50 kilos of weapons-grade plutonium — enough for as many as 10 nuclear bombs — and this stockpile will soon be Mr. Kim’s last remaining card". On the one hand, Kim can hold on to it as a trump card for perhaps, more aid and rights. But on the other hand, giving it up could severely weaken his regime and could mean Kim would be at the mercy of reformists who wish to eradicate his regime.

The article offers a suggestion, one I agree with, that North Korea cede the material to one of its closest allies in China. This would not only allow China to hold on to it, but it would prevent North Korea from making more bombs or selling it to, for example, a terrorist organization for some much needed quick cash on the go. Another important reason why China could be a viable option is that outside organizations, especially ones associated with the U.S., such as the International Atomic Energy Agency, are often distrusted by Kim and North Korea. Case in point would be when he threw out inspectors in 2002. Furthermore, because there is, ultimately, a trust in China that it is not seeking the overthrow of his regime, Kim can rest assured in that respect. In addition, China has mass subsidies and aid that it could use in case North Korea falls out of line.

Whatever the case may be, Korea is a step closer than ever before in uniting, but this issue remains as a hurdle to be cleared. Timing is key and it is just as important as to who will deal with and handle North Korea and its fissile material. But as North Korea becomes more integrated with the rest of the world, and everyone is beginning to acknowledge, as the article states, "the elephant in the room", progress isn't looking too far away.

Things Looking Up for North Korea

These days, you don't seem to be hearing a whole lot about the tensions between North Korean and the U.S., and also, South Korea. The days of nuclear threats, political tension and cold shoulders may not be a thing of the past, but they are en route to becoming distant memories. Thanks to talks between the Northern dictator Kim Jong Il and the Southern President Roh Moo Hyun, things are indeed looking up for North Korea.

One example is the development of freight transportation and service that has been allowed by both sides to cross the North-South DMZ (demilitarized zone) for the first time in the last 50 years, as summarized by this article. This would mean the collaboration of the major North and South railroads and corresponding companies. More specifically, through these discussion and summits, the short term benefits would include the South using cheap North labor to send its good to above the border. The article expresses this view in stating:

Lee (President Lee Chul of Korea Railroads) said freight train services joining the South and Kaesong will sharply cut costs for South Korean businesses and help reduce tensions between the two sides, which remain technically at war under a truce after the 1950-53 hostilities.

Many, including Lee, hope that this symbolic unity in business will lead to more than symbolism and a temporary goodwill. Many are hoping that this railroad connection will be followed by a physical and national connection, a hope which has its many dissenters who cite skepticism regarding the North's intentions and the sheer difficulties it would mean for the South. Another development is the South, North and China having talks regarding the Olympics and a possible joint North-South Korean dance/cheer team to be sent there. All these events seem to be discrete and not radical, but in something as delicate as the North Korean issue, time, patience and safety is all that can be advocated.

In more compelling news, it looks as though the nuclear issues of the North could be distant memories sooner than expected. In this article, President Roh has expressed that based on his meetings with the North's leader, Kim, that "North Korea wants the standoff over its nuclear weapons program resolved in order to forge better ties with the United States". This, of course, doesn't come as too much of a shock since North Korea has been more and more compliant in international discussions to get rid of its nuclear program while the U.S. softened its approach toward Pyongyang after tense times when the North ran its first nuclear test. Some of this compromise has been seen in the form of the North shutting down nuclear reactors in exchange for economic aid and political concessions.

In looking at prospects for unity, President Roh has been one to speak out saying that Korean reunion would not be a burden for the South, going as far as stating that "North Korea is not a land of danger, but a land of opportunity for us". In fact, the two sides, spearheaded by its leaders in Roh and Kim, are looking to formally end the war and spur up summits to discuss related issues. These peace talks would include the two Koreas, the U.S. and China.

I am all for these developments and peace talks, and in fact, I'm excited for whatever developments may come about in the coming months, especially with the goodwill that will further come about due to the Beijing Olympics. However, I would tend to disagree with President Roh's optimistic view of the possible reintegration of the North by the South. In fact, reality dictates that any integration of the North would parallel the integration of East Germany by the West, after the fall of U.S.S.R. and the Berlin Wall. What this would mean for South Korea is that there is going to be a lot of hard times ahead. First issue would be is what to do in terms of the leadership -- do they hold new elections? or is it assumed that they are united under a democratic regime? Also, it also remains to be seen how the South will integrate the communist north. Do they slowly integrate the north to the democratic south? Or do they resort to "shock therapy" and immediately privatize Northern firms and expose it to market economical forces? More than politics and economy, it will be a challenge to see socially how the democratic South helps those in the North who will find it impossible to live without an authoritarian regime. Integration is still a ways away, to be sure, but as it seems to become more and more a realistic possibility, it's necessary that it is looked at realistically. And Roh needs to realize that things won't be easy. After all, Germany still hasn't fully recovered from its reunion.