Things Looking Up for North Korea

These days, you don't seem to be hearing a whole lot about the tensions between North Korean and the U.S., and also, South Korea. The days of nuclear threats, political tension and cold shoulders may not be a thing of the past, but they are en route to becoming distant memories. Thanks to talks between the Northern dictator Kim Jong Il and the Southern President Roh Moo Hyun, things are indeed looking up for North Korea.

One example is the development of freight transportation and service that has been allowed by both sides to cross the North-South DMZ (demilitarized zone) for the first time in the last 50 years, as summarized by this article. This would mean the collaboration of the major North and South railroads and corresponding companies. More specifically, through these discussion and summits, the short term benefits would include the South using cheap North labor to send its good to above the border. The article expresses this view in stating:

Lee (President Lee Chul of Korea Railroads) said freight train services joining the South and Kaesong will sharply cut costs for South Korean businesses and help reduce tensions between the two sides, which remain technically at war under a truce after the 1950-53 hostilities.

Many, including Lee, hope that this symbolic unity in business will lead to more than symbolism and a temporary goodwill. Many are hoping that this railroad connection will be followed by a physical and national connection, a hope which has its many dissenters who cite skepticism regarding the North's intentions and the sheer difficulties it would mean for the South. Another development is the South, North and China having talks regarding the Olympics and a possible joint North-South Korean dance/cheer team to be sent there. All these events seem to be discrete and not radical, but in something as delicate as the North Korean issue, time, patience and safety is all that can be advocated.

In more compelling news, it looks as though the nuclear issues of the North could be distant memories sooner than expected. In this article, President Roh has expressed that based on his meetings with the North's leader, Kim, that "North Korea wants the standoff over its nuclear weapons program resolved in order to forge better ties with the United States". This, of course, doesn't come as too much of a shock since North Korea has been more and more compliant in international discussions to get rid of its nuclear program while the U.S. softened its approach toward Pyongyang after tense times when the North ran its first nuclear test. Some of this compromise has been seen in the form of the North shutting down nuclear reactors in exchange for economic aid and political concessions.

In looking at prospects for unity, President Roh has been one to speak out saying that Korean reunion would not be a burden for the South, going as far as stating that "North Korea is not a land of danger, but a land of opportunity for us". In fact, the two sides, spearheaded by its leaders in Roh and Kim, are looking to formally end the war and spur up summits to discuss related issues. These peace talks would include the two Koreas, the U.S. and China.

I am all for these developments and peace talks, and in fact, I'm excited for whatever developments may come about in the coming months, especially with the goodwill that will further come about due to the Beijing Olympics. However, I would tend to disagree with President Roh's optimistic view of the possible reintegration of the North by the South. In fact, reality dictates that any integration of the North would parallel the integration of East Germany by the West, after the fall of U.S.S.R. and the Berlin Wall. What this would mean for South Korea is that there is going to be a lot of hard times ahead. First issue would be is what to do in terms of the leadership -- do they hold new elections? or is it assumed that they are united under a democratic regime? Also, it also remains to be seen how the South will integrate the communist north. Do they slowly integrate the north to the democratic south? Or do they resort to "shock therapy" and immediately privatize Northern firms and expose it to market economical forces? More than politics and economy, it will be a challenge to see socially how the democratic South helps those in the North who will find it impossible to live without an authoritarian regime. Integration is still a ways away, to be sure, but as it seems to become more and more a realistic possibility, it's necessary that it is looked at realistically. And Roh needs to realize that things won't be easy. After all, Germany still hasn't fully recovered from its reunion.